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Aon Retirement and Investment Blog

Weekly Update - 8 December 2014 (Canada)

NEW INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL

  • Radar.  A summary of regulatory and industry events in Canada affecting talent, retirement, and health for the two weeks ending November 27, 2014. The English version is available here. The French version is available here
  • Medium-Term View Update.  Includes Aon Hewitt’s views across asset classes.  Please contact us directly through your consultant or hek.marketing@aonhewitt.com if you’d like to receive this document.
UPCOMING EVENTS
  • December Investment Strategy Webinar.  Please join us on December 10th at 10AM CT to discuss recent research. Sign up for the webinar here


WEEK IN MARKETS
MARKET MOVES


Equities

  • Global equity markets were mostly higher over the week as investors weighed up the prospect of further policy easing from the European Central Bank early next year, a strong US non-farm payrolls report on Friday and recent oil price falls giving a boost to consumer spending. The S&P 500 index outperformed the MSCI World index last week (0.4% vs. 0.0%). In 2014 to date, the S&P 500 has outperformed the MSCI World index with a 14.4% return vs. a 7.2% return.
  • US small cap stocks outperformed large cap stocks as the Russell 2000 returned 0.8% over the week. Year-to-date, small cap has significantly underperformed large cap with a 2.8% return. Value stocks outperformed growth stocks last week (0.8% vs. -0.1%) as measured by the MSCI USA indices. In 2014 to date, growth stocks have outperformed value stocks (14.9% vs. 13.2%).

 Bonds

  • 30 year and 10 year US yields were up 8 bps to 2.97% and 14 bps to 2.31% respectively last week.
  • 20 year TIPS yields moved 10 bps higher to 0.83% over the week. 20 year breakevens were 2 bps lower at 1.76%.
  • The Barclays Capital Long Credit Index spread over Treasury yields increased by 1 bp to 178 bps while the Merrill Lynch US Corporate Index spread was up 3 bps to 137 bps over the week. US high yield bond spreads over Treasuries rose by 13 bps to 477 bps. The Emerging Market ($) bond spread over Treasuries rose by 6 bps to 316 bps. 

Commodities

  • The S&P GSCI Commodity Index fell by 1.4% in USD terms over the week, as crude oil continued to decline. The Energy sector was down by 2.2% as the price of Brent crude oil fell by 4.6% to $69/BBL. Industrial Metals were 0.5% higher over the week with the copper price rising to $6,515/MT. Agricultural prices were up by 0.8%. Gold was 1.1% higher over the week at $1,195/ounce. 

Currencies

  • The US dollar appreciated by 0.4% against sterling and by 2.3% against the yen, ending the week at $1.56/£ and ¥121.42/$ respectively. The dollar rebounded by 1.4% against the euro, finishing the week at $1.23/€. The euro is now 10.8% lower and the yen 13.3% lower year-to-date against the US dollar as Eurozone and Japanese macroeconomic and monetary policy differences with the US have driven exchange rates. 

ECONOMIC RELEASES

  • The US employment report was much stronger than expected with a 321,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November and a 44,000 upward revision to the two earlier months. A November gain of 230,000 had been expected by the consensus.  There was also some pick up in wage growth with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% over the month, compared to 0.2% expected. Earnings have now risen by 2.1% over the last year. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8%. The ISM survey data was another strong release last week. The manufacturing index was 58.7, down just a little from October’s three-year high of 59.0 and the ISM Non-manufacturing index rose to 59.3. However, Markit's Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which also surveys companies for their outlook, was a little less strong with the final composite number dipping to 56.1 in November from 57.2 in October.
  • In the Eurozone, November’s final composite PMI sank to 51.1 from October's 52.1, worse than the preliminary reading of 51.4. Manufacturing slipped to 50.1, indicating that the economy is barely expanding. Services also fell (51.1) and the retail sector increased to 48.9.  Germany’s composite PMI is down at 51.7 with the manufacturing PMI falling below 50 in November (49.5), indicating that the manufacturing sector is now contracting.  The ECB didn’t announce further monetary easing in its meeting last week but the PMI data supports expectations that there will be more easing in the New Year, especially as the European Commission lowered its Eurozone growth forecasts last week to 0.8% this year and 1.1% in 2015, down from 1.2% and 1.7%.
  • Japanese economic data was rather mixed. After the news that Q3 GDP had shrunk for the second consecutive quarter, implying a technical recession for the economy, finalized numbers show an even deeper contraction.  On an annualized basis, Q3 growth fell by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter, lower than the first calculated 1.6% contraction. Labor cash earnings rose by 0.5% over the twelve months to October, failing to meet analyst expectations of a 0.8% increase and below consumer price inflation.  More promising data releases were October’s adjusted current account which posted a surplus (¥947B) twice as large as expected (¥455B) and November’s services and composite PMIs. Both these PMIs rose above 50, with a 50.6 and 51.2 level respectively, after dipping below 50 in October.
  • HSBC China Composite PMI fell to 51.1, down from 51.7 in October.  The manufacturing PMI is now down at the key 50.0 although the services sector is stronger at a PMI level of 53.0, marginally up from 52.9 in October.


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